Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($8.71 ¼), August 3 ¾ cents higher ($8.71 ¾) & Nov 3 ½ cents higher ($8.76 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.1 lower ($287.8), August $0.3 lower ($289.7) & Dec $0.8 lower ($294.9)

July Soybean Oil closed 11 pts higher ($28.10), August 10 pts higher ($28.28) & Dec 11 pts higher ($28.91)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 500 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 600 K -1.300 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 150-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

Soybeans challenge suspected support ($8.60 July) on the morning’s re-opening and then spends the rest of the day rallying back almost 16 cents. It looks to me we may have done some busines and/or anticipation of another round of solid export sales in the morning. Despite the meal market continuing to be the weak sister it too challenged suspected support and managed to rally back but to a much lesser extent when compared to the soybean market. Soybean oil ties to look iffy but manages to stand in thanks to a stronger palm market as well as a stronger Chinese veg oil market.

Cincinnati jumps their soybean basis by 16 cents. All other interior soybean basis locations run unchanged but with a firm undertone. The midday posting at the Gulf is 3-4 cents stronger. Soybean spreads continue to show a firm tone with fractional improvements on the day; July/August trades at even money. Not much happens with the interior meal basis nor at the Gulf. Most will concede the rate of crush continues to be slow suggesting some eventual tightening. Despite the flat price of meal finishing fractionally lower spreads finished in a like manner.

The other day soybeans challenged interim resistance levels and failed to follow through. Today we did just the opposite; challenged interim support and failed to follow through. The other day I talked about how July soybean closes have been in a very tight cluster (within 8 cents of one another). This has been going on since June 4th. It suggests to me we have a pop coming especially sin e today was an outside day with a higher close. This suggests we will once again try the topside. Soybean meal should continue to stand in but I have to think soybean oil will be the better performer.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/18

July Soybeans: $8.65 – $8.80 (?)

July Soy Meal: $286.0 – $292.0

July Bean Oil: $27.75 – $28.40

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