Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($8.73), August ¾ cent higher ($8.72 ½) & Nov ½ cent lower ($8.76 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.0 higher ($288.8), August $0.9 higher ($290.6) & Dec $0.3 higher ($295.2)

July Soybean Oil closed 4 pts lower ($28.06), August 3 pts lower ($28.25) & Dec 4 pts lower ($28.91)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 538.1 K T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1.200 M T. expected – 1.382 M T. new crop vs. 600 K -1.300 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 124.0 K T. old crop vs. 150-300 K T. expected – 58.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 6.4 K T. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

Weekly export sales for old crop soybeans were disappointing while the new crop sales were once again stout. I continue to hear of Chinese interest but no new announcements were seen. Soybean meal and soybean oil export sales were nothing to write home about. For the day the flat price trade remained rather muted but then that goes along with the relatively low implied volatility. Daily trading ranges of just 6 cents reflect this.

I’m not seeing any day-to-day changes with the interior soybean basis. The undertone remains firm. The Gulf basis continues to ratchet higher. Old crop soybean spreads were firm and old crop continues to gain on the new crop. Soybean meal basis offers for both the domestic and export markets run unchanged. Processors do talk about a tightening scenario. Board crush margins remain depressed looking.

The price action in soybeans suggests the want to go higher. The low $8.80’s (July) represents some decent looking technical resistance. Soybean meal charts also suggest the want to go higher but for the past couple of weeks they have been unable to get anything going. The meal market finds support on recent attempts to break but so far unable to sustain anything on the upside. Soybean oil is in a minor consolidation phase just below recent highs. I’m not seeing anything negative in the short term price action.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/19

July Soybeans: $8.65 – $8.80 (?)

July Soy Meal: $286.0 – $293.0

July Bean Oil: $27.75 – $28.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.