Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.83 ½), Sept 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.88 ¾) & Dec 5 cents lower ($4.98)

July KC Wheat closed 4 cents lower ($4.28 ½), Sept 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.36 ¾) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.50 ½)

July Mpls Wheat closed 4 ½ cents higher ($5.24 ¾), Sept 5 cents higher ($5.35 ¾) & Dec 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.46 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 504.8 K T. old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Egypt overnight buys 240 K T. of wheat – 1 cargo Romanian, 1 cargo Ukraine, 2 cargoes Russian – average FOB price $206.72 – with freight $218.40

Weekly wheat export sales come in at the high end of expectations but did little to stem the current slide. Winter wheat harvest is ongoing in the Northern Hemisphere and from what I hear yields are not as bad as originally thought.  Egypt’s overnight tender and the prices offered to them shows how aggressive our export competition can be. The major exporters appear to be flush with wheat right now and they want to garner as much market share as they can.

I’m not seeing any changes with the SRW interior basis or its export basis. Chgo spreads ran steady to fractionally weaker. Chgo spreads overall continue to show a soft look. The advertised domestic basis levels for HRW, especially where harvest is happening are lower. Interesting to note is that the Oklahoma interior basis levels are working lower while the rail basis to the Gulf is noticeably higher.

How low can you go and I’ll leave it that.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/19

July Chgo Wheat: $4.75 – $4.90

July KC Wheat: $4.20 – $4.35

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