Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($8.75), August 3 cents lower ($8.72) & Nov 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.74)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.2 lower ($286.3), August $0.5 lower ($288.3) & Dec $0.7 lower ($292.5)

July Soybean Oil closed 18 pts lower ($28.17), August 18 pts lower ($28.37) & Dec 18 pts lower ($29.04)

USDA announces 132 K T. new crop soybeans sold to China

The soybean complex was able to recoup the majority of the losses that were created from the errant remarks (that were quickly recanted) around the Chinese trade agreement during the early stages of the night session. The USDA announcement of two cargoes of new crop soybeans sold to China helped with the attempt to rebound. Unfortunately new crop registered the greatest amount of losses as recent weather and short term forecasts remain conducive to the establishment of the new crop. As we move forward focus will continue to be on the weather and its impact on the developing crop. Next Tuesday the USDA will give us Quarterly Stocks and Acreage updates. I’m not sure we are going to get a lot out of these reports that will give us a bullish bias.

Chart Talk – new downside pivot points for soybeans have been set with the lows we saw last night. I have to think if we take out these lows follow selling will ensue (this holds true for both old crop and new crop soybeans). Soybean meal continues to edge lower while still honoring the suspected support, $285.0-$283.0. I’m still with the frame of mind that if the soybean market is going to sustain much more a rally the meal market will have to participate and so far that’s not happening. July meal minimally needs a close above $290.0 to offer some assurance that further upside exists for the soybean market. The uptrend in soybean oil remains very much intact. This works to help keep the soybean meal alive but not much else. Soybean oil continues to find its support from the palm oil market as well as the energy market. The expected expanded re-openings of the global economies helps soybean oil two ways; food and fuel. So far nothing in the soybean oil price action suggests the party is over.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/24

July Soybeans: $8.70 – $8.83

July Soy Meal: $285.0 – $291.0

July Bean Oil: $27.75 – $28.75

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