Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 6 cents higher ($8.98 ½), August 7 ¼ cents higher ($8.98 ½) & Nov 9 ½ cents higher ($9.06 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.9 higher ($295.4), August $1.6 higher ($297.8) & Dec $1.8 higher ($306.0)

July Soybean Oil closed 23 pts higher ($28.21), August 22 pts higher ($28.36) & Dec 20 pts higher ($29.01)

USDA announces 264 K T. old crop soybeans sold to China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 521.6 K T. vs. 250-450 K T. expected

USDA says US Soybean Crop now rated 71% GE (unch) vs. 70% expected vs. 53% year ago – Blooming – 31% vs. 24% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 2% vs. 4% 5-year average

Weather threats coupled with what looks like better business keeps the soybean complex firm. The weather/forecasts have taken on a more noticeable focus since last week’s acreage report came in lower than expected. The latest forecasts are suggesting modest amounts of moisture in the north, northwestern reaches of the Corn Belt. Later in the week there is a short of moisture for the central areas of the Belt followed by some moderating temps. Next week may see the return of hot and dry. It looks like China has resumed its buying campaign – 126 K T. new crop soybeans last Thursday and 264 K T. old crop soybeans today. Soybean oil was the leader of the product markets as palm oil influenced this market higher.

Interior cash soybean markets continue to ease from last week. Last week’s rally prompted a fair amount of movement and that is being reflected not only in the interior but at the Gulf as well. Bear spreads were working upfront while bull spreads were working Nov forward. Not much happens with the meal basis – trucks steady, rail a touch better and the Gulf steady. Meal spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day.

Nothing bearish looking about the soybean charts. The November soybean chart shows some decent looking congestive type resistance from $9.15 to $9.25. December soybean meal has a fair amount of congestive type resistance starting at the $310.0 level. December soybean oil appears to be geared up to challenge the $30.00 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/07

Aug Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.10

Nov Soybeans: $8.95 – $9.18

Dec Soy Meal: $302.0 – $312.0

Dec Soy Oil: $28.80 – $29.65

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.