August Soybeans closed unchanged ($8.97 ½), Sept 2 ¾ cents higher ($8.93) & Nov 3 ¾ cents higher ($8.96 ¼)
August Soybean Meal closed $2.2 lower ($287.1), Sept $1.9 lower ($289.3) & Dec $1.6 lower ($295.7)
August Soybean Oil closed 76 pts higher ($31.67), Sept 75 pts higher ($31.22) & Dec 56 pts higher ($31.32)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 551.5 K T. vs. 375-700 K T. expected
USDA announces 260 K T. soybeans sold to unknown (8 K T. old crop, 252 K T. new crop)
Weekly Soybean Crop Ratings – 73% GE (+1%) vs. 72% expected vs. 54% year ago – Blooming – 85% vs. 82% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 59% vs. 54% 5-year average
Strength in soybean oil continues to provide the boost for soybeans as the meal market continues to languish. It seems bean oil usage for bio-diesel is much higher than anyone previously thought. Its not too often we see bean oil spreads move 20 pts in a day but that’s what the Sept/Dec spread did today. Weekly soybean export inspections were mid-range of expectations but the trade was not looking for that much. The USDA announcement of 260 K T. sold to unknown was supportive. As we move into August weather/moisture will be closely monitored as this is the time frame for pod-filling. There are some scattered areas of dryness out there; the far west and parts of Ohio. The latest from the NWS suggest a warm and dry bias for the Dakotas and the western belt while warm and wet for the balance of the Midwest.
The interior Midwestern basis for soybeans runs mostly unchanged on Monday. The Gulf for soybeans stays firm. Soybean spreads showed a slight widening bias out to March and then a bullish took over as March gains on its forward contracts. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior don’t do much while the export market for meal continues to firm. Meal spreads continue to show a widening slant despite the firmer export market.
Soybean oil continues to be the complex leader as it closes at 4 ½ month highs. $32.00 is the next resistance level for Dec bean oil. December meal charts continue to suggest it is going nowhere fast as it appears it is caught between $290.0 and $305.0. After last week’s challenge of interim minor support level ($8.80) November soybeans appear geared up to challenge once again the $9.10 – $9.20 resistance levels.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/04
Sept Soybeans: $8.83 – $8.98
Nov Soybeans: $8.88 – $9.04
Dec Soy Meal: $292.5 – $300.5
Dec Soy Oil: $30.80 – $32.00
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