Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($10.14 ½), March 5 ½ cents lower ($10.13 ½) & July 4 ½ cents lower ($10.12 ½)

October Soybean Meal closed $4.8 higher ($342.1), Dec $3.6 higher ($344.6) & March $3.0 higher ($338.0)

October Soybean Oil closed 98 pts lower ($32.69), Dec 80 pts lower ($32.80) & March 80 pts lower ($32.97)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. sold to China; 126 K T. sold to Unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 2.000-3.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-400 K t. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected

Soybeans continue to correct from Monday’s contract highs as it appears it is torn between the sinking bean oil market and the continued higher meal market. Soybean meal continues to move higher from a slow rate of domestic crush due to processor down time (coming back online by the end of the month) and a slow rate of crush out of Argentina. Soybean oil continues to take it on the chin from sinking competing veg oils (palm & sun).

Tomorrow is export sales day and the trade is looking for big soybean numbers. During the report period there were announcements in the 1.800 M T. range. With that said a number at the low end of expectations just may prompt some further selling.

I continue to see processors and river locations vie for origination. Early harvesters, if feasible, get to pick and choose where they will go with their soybeans. The futures’ market price structure continues to suggest selling your beans vs. sitting on them. The Gulf market continues to be strong. Soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed out to May. Interior offers of cash soybean meal are mostly steady, maybe a shade better. It’s the export market for meal that’s making the rally as offers keep ratcheting higher. Meal spreads continue to tighten and are now clearly inverted Dec forward.

Soybean charts have the appearance of downflagging. When the price action is broken down into inter-day increments it looks like they are stair stepping down touching minor support levels then bouncing followed by another leg of stair stepping down. The next level of support for November soybeans is $10.05 followed by something closer to $9.95. Resistance remains clear up towards the $10.40 level. Soybean meal charts (Dec) remain strong looking with a modest degree of overbought. Soybean oil (Dec) looks like it is in a wash-out phase as the recent 3-day break has taken out the recent 3 weeks of action. As much as I thought $33.00 would offer some support now it looks like something closer to $32.00.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/24

Nov Beans: $10.05 – $10.30

Dec Bean Meal: $338.0 – ???

Dec Bean Oil: $32.25 – $33.50 

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