Nov Soybeans closed 25 cents lower ($10.57 ¼), March 19 cents lower ($10.41 ¾) & July 16 ½ cents lower ($10.35 ¼)
December Soybean Meal closed $7.3 lower ($376.7), March $6.8 lower ($358.0) & July $4.5 lower ($345.4)
December Soybean Oil closed 69 pts lower ($33.42), March 59 pts lower ($33.08) & July 62 pts lower ($32.78)
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 110.0 K T. sold to Egypt, 120.0 K T. sold to Unknown
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.000-2.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-40 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
As I suggested in my corn comment today’s break was driven by fear. One can take their choice of which fear (virus and/or election), better weather for the SA soybean crops and/or the spec trade just being too long. The demand side of the equations is still here as out export program remains extremely front end loaded. If SA has successful soybean crop strength in the March forward contracts may be a bit unwarranted. Time will tell on this.
The interior soybean basis continues to be firm with only a couple of exceptions. The Gulf market for soybeans was looking at $1.00 over offered for the nearby slot. Supposedly there were trades done at this level. Today’s afternoon posting noted some basis easing in respect for the newest hurricane that is slated to impact the gulf over the next few days. Spreads got beat on mostly from the flat price selling. Friday is 1st Notice Day for November soybeans. I’m not holding my breath to see any deliveries. The meal basis, both interior and for export stay firm. Processors vie with exporters for soybean origination. The nearby meal spread, Dec/Jan, had a slightly firm bias. Jan forward spreads, however, got beat on from the flat price selling.
Yesterday I talked about the possibility of soybeans correcting 30 to 60 cents. Yesterday’s high in Jan soybeans was $10.88 ½ while today’s low was $10.54 ¼ (we just saw 34 cents). If we’re going to correct 60 cents on this break we’re looking at $10.25. For soybean meal I suggested a correction of $20 to $30. Yesterday’s high in Dec meal was $392.7 while today’s low was $371.3 (we just saw $20.0). Something closer to $360.0 is now in the cards. Tomorrow is export sales day and we went home tonight pretty beat up on a short term basis. We have room for an overnight bounce but let’s underline the word bounce. Look at a Dec bean oil chart – am I looking at a near month old upflag that’s on the verge of rolling over?
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/29
Jan Beans: $10.48 ($10.38) – $10.72
Dec Bn Meal: $370.0 ($366.0) – $386.0
Dec Bn Oil: $32.75 – $34.20
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