Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 47 ½ cents higher ($14.22), March 45 ¾ cents higher ($14.18 ¼) & July 41 ¼ cents higher ($13.99 ½)

Jan Soybean Meal closed $19.4 higher ($471.2), March $18.6 higher ($464.4) & July $15.5 higher ($453.7)

Jan Soybean Oil closed unchanged ($43.13), March unchanged ($42.63) & July 7 pts higher ($42.15)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sale – 120 K T. to Unknown

$14.25 was my resistance level for today in March soybeans. We’re there and I’m not sure what to do next.

Quarterly Soybean Stocks come in 13 M bu. higher than expected while down 319 M bu. vs. one year ago

Soybean Production comes in 23 M bu. less than expected and down 35 M bu. vs. November production. Yield comes in 0.3 bpa less than expected and down 0.5 bpa vs. November. Harvested acres increase 29 K vs. November.

US Carryout comes in 1 M bu. more than expected and declines by 35 M bu. vs. December. S-T-U 3.0% vs. 3.8% last month

US Demand increases 35 M Bu. (5 M bu. crush, 30 M bu. exports)

World Carryout comes in 1.65 T. greater than expected but declines by 1.33 M T. vs. December. China import projections ran unchanged at 100.0 M T.

The interior Midwestern soybean basis runs mixed. The Ohio River reads a bit better, Decatur, IL is holding on to yesterday’s 11 cent jump and Savanna, IL reads a bit easier. The Gulf basis holds on to its recent strength. Bull spreads within the old crop continue to tighten and July/Nov vaults 21 cents higher.

Board crush margins continue to stay depressed and that in turn has meal prices soaring due to the idea the crush will begin to slow (despite the USDA increasing the crush projection – thank you very much Argentina) We are in the midst of price rationing for both soybeans and soybean meal and it does not appear to be over. Volatility indicators suggest we are going to see some wild sessions going forward. It’s a little bit rich for my blood but I’ll enjoy watching.

Daily & Resistance – 01/13

March Beans : $13.90 – ???

March Meal: $455.0 – ???

March Bean Oil: $42.00 – $43.80

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