Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 8 ¾ cent lower ($13.75), July 8 ½ cents lower ($13.64 ¾) & Nov 2 ½ cents lower (11.86 ½)

March Soybean Meal closed $5.8 lower ($425.9), July $6.0 lower ($421.9) & Dec $2.1 lower ($373.7)

March Soybean Oil closed 14 pts higher ($46.91), July 10 pts higher ($45.48) & Dec 3 pts higher ($42.15)

USDA suggests US soybean planted acres for 2021/22 at 90.0 M vs. 83.1 M year ago

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Old crop soybeans sag today stemming from lower Brazilian FOB prices. Brazil talks about slack demand and harvest slowly advancing. Today the USDA gave us their first suggestion of the year pertaining to this coming year’s acreage; 90 M (recent trade ideas were thinking 89.4 M). Tomorrow they will give us their demand ideas which will lead to a carryout projection (the USDA alluded to the idea for additional soybean imports to ease the current S-T-U). The recent trade poll was thinking 184 M bu. but they were also using 600 K fewer acres. In addition to what the USDA may have to say tomorrow is also weekly export sales day. China is back from their weeklong holiday. The trade will be looking for a strong sales report and evidence of renewed Chinese buying to keep the old crop from breaking down. Closes below $13.15 will not be well received basis July while closes above $13.85 will give the bulls renewed confidence. Watch the meal market as it appears to be on shaky ground for the near term. It seems the soybean oil market does not want to sustain a break. Strong soybean oil vs. weak soybean meal works to keep soybeans in a status quo state.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/19

March Beans : $13.62 – $13.90

March Meal: $420.0 – $435.0

March Bean Oil: $46.15 – $47.20

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.