March Soybeans closed 3 ¼ cents lower ($14.10 ¾), July 7 ¼ cents lower ($13.91 ½) & Nov 5 ¾ cents lower (12.24)
March Soybean Meal closed $3.1 lower ($420.2), July $2.7 lower ($417.3) & Dec $2.2 lower ($378.4)
March Soybean Oil closed 8 pts higher ($51.35), July 10 pts higher ($48.79) & Dec 31 pts higher ($44.52)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
The lack of follow through from Tuesday’s rally has the complex selling off on Wednesday. Overall nothing has changed; Brazilian harvest continues to be slow, Argentina weather remains iffy and the US S-T-U remains extremely tight. Until we see signs of the S-T-U easing up old crop soybeans will stay Soybean meal remains range bound while soybean oil doesn’t want to sustain a break. I have to think the export market is slowing down as evidenced with recent weekly export sales. The “however” to this is we have not slowed the crush down. If crush margins can deteriorate it will eventually get the meal market off of its weeks old sideways.
Soybean processor basis levels are such that they still want soybeans. Interior river locations are maintaining status quo meaning they are running unchanged with no bias one way or the other. The Gulf basis is steady with recent weakness. Soybean spreads ran sharply mixed; bull spreads work to July, July loses to the new crop, new crop spreads show a bearish bias. Soybean meal spreads showed a bearish bias out to October.
Soybeans and soybean meal are no worse than their current trading affairs. Soybean oil does not want to give way to any sustained breaks. The May meal/May bean oil spread has given up $5000 a contract in the month of February and is now closing on in support levels that were established in September. The “human” in me is itching to pick a bottom but I won’t. I’ll continue to focus on buying breaks to suspected support levels in both the soybean and soybean meal contracts.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/04
May Beans : $13.90 – $14.22 (?)
May Meal: $414.0 – $434.0
May Bean Oil: $49.00 – $50.25 (?)
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