Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 18 ½ cents lower ($14.14 ¼), July 16 ½ cents lower ($14.04 ½) & Nov 13 ½ cents lower (12.14 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $3.6 higher ($404.6), July $3.4 higher ($405.4) & Dec $0.8 higher ($372.2)

May Soybean Oil closed 250 pts lower ($54.98), July 222 pts lower ($52.18) & Dec 141 pts lower ($46.32)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 101.9 K T. old crop vs. 100-450 K T. expected – 65.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 167.8 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 17.2 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 13.2 K t. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Soybean oil was the downside leader today. Sharply lower crude oil prices, lower palm prices and rumors of Argentine bean oil being sold into the US had the nearby May contract locking limit down as early as mid-session. This weighed on soybean prices as did the low looking weekly export sales. Harvest is rolling along in Brazil and overnight Argentina received some decent moisture for its late maturing crop. Soybean meal received some decent looking left-handed support from the unwinding of long bean oil vs. short soybean meal.

The processor soybean basis in the Midwest continues to lead the way higher. Decatur, Il jumps 7 cents overnight. The exporter basis remains slack looking as does the Gulf. Soybean spreads sold off along with the flat price. The interior soybean meal basis offers remain quiet. Offers to sell meal at the Gulf soften. Meal spreads saw some improvement in response to the unwinding inter-market spreads involving short soybean meal.

Despite today’s not too spiffy looking performance I do not see the old crop soybean market breaking down ahead of Wednesday’s stock’s report. The same holds true for new crop soybeans. With the high volatility in soybean oil expecting anything and everything. Soybean meal should be able to maintain its recent trading range.

The Bloomberg survey for Quarterly Soybean Stocks suggests 1.537 B Bu. vs. 2.255 B bu. year ago – Soybean Plantings – 90.1 M acres vs. 83.1 M year ago

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/26

May Beans : $14.05 – $14.30

May Meal: $400.0 – $410.0  

May Bean Oil: $53.00 – $56.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.