Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 12 ¼ cents lower ($6.12 ½), July 10 ¼ cents lower ($6.08 ½) & Sept 9 cents lower ($6.09 ½)

May KC Wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower ($5.66 ¾), July 9 ¼ cents lower ($5.73) & Sept 9 ¼ cents lower ($5.79 ¼)

May Mpls Wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower ($6.17 ½), July 9 ¼ cents lower ($6.27) & Sept 8 ½ cents lower ($6.34 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 343.6 K T. old crop vs. 150-500 K T. expected – 70.5 K T. new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected

US wheat futures continue to look for buying and so far they are not finding any. I did not think weekly export sales were anything special. The continued strength in the US Dollar keeps US origin out of competition. World prices continue to come down as it seems everyone has wheat for sale. I’m still hearing of a fair amount feed wheat business but so its impact is almost nil (it allows the hard varieties to gain on the soft).

The interior wheat basis remains quiet as most producers are not wild about selling into this break. The Gulf rail basis for HRW improves a touch while not much happens with the SRW export basis. Chgo spreads continue to soften along with the flat price selling while KC spreads ran steady to fractionally weaker.

Despite the cascading lower flat price I can’t imagine this continuing going into Wednesday’s numbers. Oversold ideas should begin to lend some support. I would not expect a lot; maybe a 10-15 cent bounce from current levels.

The Bloomberg survey for Quarterly Wheat Stocks suggests 1.271 B Bu. vs. 1.415 B bu. year ago – Wheat PlantingsAll Wheat – 44.9 M acres vs. 44.3 M year ago – Winter Wheat – 31.8 M vs. 30.4 M year ago – Spring Wheat – 11.7 M vs. 12.3 M year ago – Durum – 1.6 M vs. 1.7 M year ago

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/26

May Chgo Wheat : $6.05 – $6.24

May KC Wheat: $5.60 – $5.75

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