Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents higher ($14.15 ¼), July 6 ¾ cents higher ($14.09 ¾) & Nov 2 ½ cents higher (11.73 ¼)

May Soybean Meal closed $2.3 lower ($406.8), July $1.0 lower ($410.4) & Dec unchanged ($393.0)

May Soybean Oil closed 53 pts higher ($53.38), July 41 pts higher ($51.41) & Dec 33 pts higher ($47.45)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – <-92.5 K T.> old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – 338.6 K T. new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 127.7 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 4.8 K T. new crop vs. 5-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 15.7 K T. old crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

The soybean market, although closing higher, dogged it when compared to the corn and wheat markets. Old crop soybean sales were a negative number due to China switching just over 200 K T. of old crop sales to new crop sales. Down in SA CONAB (the Brazilian version of our USDA) suggests their current soybean crop is 135.5 M T. (up 400 K T. from their previous estimate) vs. the USDA at 134.0 M T. Offsetting some of this is a yet lower Argentine soybean crop; BAGE (the Buenos Aires Grain Exchanges) is suggesting this year’s soybean crop is 43.0 M T. down another 1.0 M T. from their previous estimate. Last month the USDA suggested the Argentine soybean crop was 47.5 M T. It will be interesting to see if the USDA adopts any of these numbers tomorrow.

Not much happens with the interior exporter soybean basis while the processor is finding soybean origination is hard to come by. The gulf basis remains quietly soft. Nearby soybean spread was steady while old crop gains slightly on the new crop. Nearby meal spreads continue to grind lower citing slack demand. It seems the processor wants to make more bean oil to take advantage in the bio-diesel market.

Tomorrow’s old crop supply-demand report should be no worse that a reminder that old crop soybeans will remain tight for the balance of the marketing year. The average guess for the carryout is 119 M bu. vs. 120 M last month.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/09

July Beans : $13.75 – $14.45

July Meal: $402.0 – $422.0  

July Bean Oil: $49.50 – $53.50

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