Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 8 ¼ cents higher ($14.18 ¼), July 8 ¾ cents higher ($14.11) & Nov 5 cents higher (12.69)

May Soybean Meal closed $3.7 higher ($401.9), July $3.5 higher ($406.5) & Dec $0.4 higher ($392.0)

May Soybean Oil closed 65 pts higher ($54.89), July 65 pts higher ($52.87) & Dec 3 pts higher ($47.18)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 90.5 K T. old crop vs. -100 +200 K T. expected – 265.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-500 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 71.5 K T. old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – 26.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – -1.5 K T. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly soybean export sales, both old crop and new crop were within the realm of expectations. NOPA crush comes in a bit less that expected and that lends support to the product markets. Strength in the product markets spilled over into the soybean market. If both product markets can stay firm in unison it will allow the processor to continue to be aggressive in his basis bids and that in turn will keep the bull spreads alive.

The interior soybean basis is all about the processor and his noticeably strong bids. River locations’ basis remains nothing to write home about and the same can be said for the Gulf. The nearby May/July spread may see some herky-jerky motion in the near term but I have to think as we get closer to May deliveries this spread will firm and it will influence the old crop/new crop spreads to firm.

The trading range affair in old crop soybeans should continue as a worst case scenario. The price action in new crop soybeans still tells me they are biased to move higher. The past two weeks of price action in soybean oil suggests new highs. Is soybean meal trying to show the worst is over? I think its clear that the mid-high $390’s are make it or break support for the July contract. A continued slowdown in the crush would be of tremendous help. Both the domestic and export meal basis are trying to show they are improving. Nearby spreads are also trying to show some improvement. So just maybe the worst is over for the meal market. At least I’ll know where I am wrong.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/16

July Beans : $13.95 – 14.23

July Meal: $403.0 – $408.0

July Bean Oil: $51.70 – $53.70


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