Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($6.53 ¾), July 5 ¼ cents higher ($6.55 ½) & Sept 5 cents higher ($6.57)

May KC Wheat closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($6.07 ¾), July 3 ¾ cents higher ($6.15 ¼) & Sept 3 ½ cents higher ($6.20 ½)

May Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($6.63 ¼), July 2 ¼ cents higher ($6.71 ¼) & Sept 2 ¾ cents higher ($6.76 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – -56.6 K T. old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – 274.4 K T. new crop vs. 300-550 K T. expected

Flat price wheat sells off early after disappointing weekly export sales. The recent rally has not been about demand but rather new crop supply fears. Futures did not stay down for very long as recent weather concerns came back into focus. I’m told this weekend bears watching for low temps in the central southern Plains. Dryness will continue to plague the Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies.  Europe, I’m told, has its own problems with dryness. Will the Russian encroachment on Ukraine create problems for exports coming out of that area? If memory serves me correctly when Russia moved into Crimea we had some shivers sent through the wheat market.

Interior cash wheat markets remain relatively quiet. I don’t see much movement as most wheat producers are in a wait and see mode as to final development of their winter crop. In both Chgo and KC saw some minor spread improvement. If the outcome of the winter wheat crop is starting to look shay by first notice day it may limit deliveries against the May contract.

Its all about how the weather shakes out for the final development phase of the winter crop and for planting of the spring crop in the spring wheat areas. As of this writing it remains dry looking so I’ll have to suggest the flat price remains relatively firm. Flat price wheat charts show the recent upwards momentum remains intact.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/16

July Chgo: $6.47 – $6.65

July KC Wheat: $6.08 – $6.24

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