Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 4 cents higher ($14.18 ¾), Sept ¾ cent higher ($13.56 ¼)  & Nov 4 ¼ cents higher ($13.53 ½)

August Soybean Meal closed $4.6 higher ($357.2), Sept $5.1 higher ($356.4)  & Dec $5.7 higher ($359.6)

August Soybean Oil closed 120 pts lower ($64.62), Sept 71 pts lower ($63.71) & Dec 45 pts lower ($62.59)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 181.1 K T. vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 60% GE (+2%) vs. 57% expected vs. 73% year ago – Blooming – 86% vs. 82% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 58% vs. 52% 5-year average

Soybeans see a similar trade when compared to corn but not as strong. Sunday saw a two-sided trade and the Monday day session started weak. Soybean oil was under the gun from a 6% drop in palm prices and a sharply lower crude oil market. Initially the meal market was acting rather lethargic. As the day went on the meal market started to show some spark from inter-market spreading and that got soybean prices moving off of their lows. Weekly export inspections, I thought, were no big deal. Forecasts are cool and dry this week for much of the Midwest’s soybean regions. Temps will warm as the week progresses but I’m not seeing anything extreme. As we approach mid-month moisture is expected to improve except for the northwestern reaches as they are expected to stay dry.

As we move closer to the USDA’s August 12th production/supply-demand update I’m thinking soybeans will become a short term trading range affair. We may be seeing a shift in the bean oil/bean meal spread trade favoring the meal market. If true this will help support the soybean market. For what it is worth either one of the product market staying firm will help soybeans stay alive. Forecasts are a bit of a double edged sword; short term they are friendly longer term they are bearish.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/03

Nov Beans: $13.30 – $13.65

Dec Meal: $354.0 – $364.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.50 – $63.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.