Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 3 cents lower ($11.95 ¼), Jan 4 cents lower ($12.06) & March 4 ½ cents lower ($12.16)

October Soybean Meal closed $0.5 higher ($313.4), Dec $1.3 lower ($311.7) & Jan $1.2 lower ($313.8)

October Soybean Oil closed 74 pts higher ($59.36), Dec 74 pts higher ($59.59) & Jan 63 pts higher ($59.50)

USDA Announces Soybean Export Sales – 330 K T. to China, 198 K T. to Unknown

November soybeans challenge their March 31st interim low and manage to hold for now from thoughts of a short term oversold. Soybean oil gets help from a stronger palm oil market, India lowering it is import duties on veg oil and a US crude market showing some resiliency while showing signs it may have gone high enough for now. Soybean meal continues to dog it but losses were slight when compared to Tuesday’s declines. Personally I think it will be tough for the soybean market to sustain a lasting bounce especially if soybean planting in Brazil proceeds in a timely manner. Yesterday the USDA said US soybean supply increased by 145 M bu. and demand only increased by 10 M bu. This is not how bull markets work. Like corn we still have about 50% of the soybean harvest yet to go and no one is complaining about yields.

Interior cash soybean markets are stabilizing from recent slides. Locations involved for export are showing signs of minor improvement. This includes the Gulf. Soybean spreads showed improvement today after the Nov/Jan traded out to a 12 cent carry and then traded into a 10 ¼ cent carry. I’m not sure we can rely on China to make a bull case with export considering their mandate to slow crushing operations in an effort to conserve energy.

Technically both soybeans and soybean meal are due for some bouncing due to some short term oversold considerations. Recent weather across the Midwest should slow the harvest which may facilitate some short term correction. Soybean oil still looks like it can see some further downside but it appears it will come grudgingly.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 10/14

Nov Beans: $11.84 (?) – $12.15

Dec Meal: $308.0 – $318.0

Dec Soy Oil: $58.50– $61.00

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