January Soybeans closed 3 cents higher ($12.62 ½), March ¾ cent higher ($12.64 ½) & July ¼ cent higher ($12.79 ¾)
January Soybean Meal closed $4.7 lower ($372.2), March $4.8 lower ($369.0) & July $3.4 lower ($371.7)
January Soybean Oil closed 123 pts higher ($53.47), March 119 pts higher ($53.51) & July 103 pts higher ($53.42)
NOPA November Crush – 179.462 M Bu. vs. 181.640 M expected – Soyoil Stocks – 1.832 B lbs. vs. 1.903 B lbs expected
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.100-1.775 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-125 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-40 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Wednesday started off where it left off on Tuesday; soybean oil losing and soybean meal gaining with soybeans trading slightly firmer. January meal filled it 4th of July breakdown gap by $1.1 and that attracted some selling. Soybean oil was still languishing against the $51.00 level and the price of soybeans began to ease. It seemed like the dramatic break in wheat was spilling over into the soybean market. At 11:00AM the NOPA crush came out and said fewer soybean crushed vs. what was anticipated. Soybean oil stocks came in less than expected and that prompted short covering in bean oil which prompted further selling in the meal. Soybeans, once again, get caught in the middle of all this.
Upfront cash markets remain firm for soybeans, both domestically and for export. The bull spreading involving long January soybeans gave this contract enough lift to get it back into the plus column for the day. Cash offers to sell soybean meal run unchanged for truck, rail and export. Today’s flat price selling weighed on meal spreads.
January soybeans continue to be a range bound trade. Concerns over dryness in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina are not going away. Couple this with the good upfront export demand and January soybeans will continue to get supported. After January the export outlook does not look too spiffy. Soybean oil reacts to a short term oversold just as meal reacts to a short term overbought. The inter-market spread between the two had also developed into a short term extreme. For the near term I would expect some further retracements in both the meal and oil markets while soybeans continue to get caught in the middle.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/16
Jan Beans: $12.45 – $12.75
Jan Meal: $361.0 – $380.0
Jan Soy Oil: $51.50 – $55.00
The risk of trading and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.