March Chgo Wheat closed 31 cents lower ($7.56), May 30 ½ cents lower ($7.62) & July 27 cents lower ($7.57)
March KC Wheat closed 26 ¼ cents lower ($7.85 ½), May 25 ¼ cents lower ($7.87 ½) & July 22 cents lower ($7.81 ¾)
March Mpls Wheat closed 11 ¾ cents lower ($10.09 ¼), May 10 ¼ cents lower ($9.99 ¾)) & July 9 ½ cents lower ($9.71 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Flat price wheat becomes unglued today. Russia talks about lowering its 4th quarter quota for 9.0 M T. to 8.0 M T. I read that as almost bearish as 8.0 M T. for their 4th quarter quota suggests still ample supplies for their domestic needs. Australia talks about a decent quality crop when it was just a few weeks ago there were fears of poor quality due to excessive moisture. Personally I don’t think there was one singular news item to prompt today’s break but rather a culmination of factors. The statement out of the USDA the other day suggesting US wheat export sales are not going to get any better did not help the overall demeanor of the remaining bulls.
Not much happens in the US wheat cash markets. Spreads for all three of the varieties were under pressure from the flat price selling. There was a positive note despite flat price doom and gloom; inter-market spreads featuring hard vs. soft are back to working just like they were when the flat price was rallying.
Unfortunately last week the USDA told us the wheat pile was growing and since then the market has acted accordingly. After today’s debacle shades of oversold are being seen in the price action. I would like to think there’s not much left on the downside from both a price and time outlook but then I was thinking the same just a few days ago.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/16
March Chgo Wheat: $7.48 – $7.73
March KC Wheat: $7.78 – $7.99
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