Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 10 cents higher ($8.31 ¾), August 10 ¼ cents higher ($8.38 ½) & Nov 10 ½ cents higher ($8.57 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $3.0 higher ($297.3), August $3.0 higher ($299.0) & Dec $3.4 higher ($305.6)

July Soybean Oil closed 28 pts higher ($27.50), August 28 pts higher ($27.63) & Dec 30 pts higher ($28.23)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 497.0 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected – 33.153 M T. year-to-date vs. 48.31 M T. Target

Weekly Soybean Crop Progress – Planted – 19% vs. 22% expected vs. 47% 5-year average – Emerged – 5% vs. 17% 5-year average

As far as I’m concerned the soybean complex went along with the crowd on Monday. I have yet to see/hear anything new that would suggest the US and China are coming close to terms as far as a trade accord is concerned. “Prevent Plant” talk in the corn market prompts talk of additional soybean acres. “Prevent Plant” talk in the soybean market is just that, “talk”. As far as I’m concerned the soybean market will continue to get the short end of stick when it comes to inter-market grain spreads; buying whatever and selling soybeans against that whatever.

The interior soybean basis has to be viewed as steady to better vs. late last week’s postings. The Ohio River is up 9 cents, Burns Harbor is up 5 cents and Decatur, IN is up 3 cents. the Gulf basis for soybeans is firm looking but not what I would call exciting. Soybean spreads ran fractionally easier vs. the July contract while mostly steady elsewhere. I’m not seeing any changes in the offers to sell cash soybean meal; interior and for export. Meal spreads ran steady upfront while old crop ran fractionally easier vs. the new crop.

The soybean market is in a minor backing and filling mode following last week’s rally out of the hole. The same can be said for soybean meal. Soybean oil is managing to hold on to most of last week’s rally. If you’re a fan of higher soy complex prices then you had better be long the feedgrains because it is up them to take the soybeans higher. As of this writing I think we should further consolidation in the soybean complex unless the feedgrain markets roll over. If feedgrains roll over I have to think soybeans will sink even faster.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/21

July Soybeans: $8.15 – $8.40

July Soybean Meal: $291.5 – 302.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.00 – $27.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.