Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents lower ($8.87 ¾), August 6 cents lower ($8.93 ¾) & Nov 6 cents lower ($9.12 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.2 lower ($312.2), August $1.3 lower ($313.2) & Dec $1.2 lower ($320.0)

July Soybean Oil closed unchanged ($27.81), August 3 pts lower ($27.93) & Dec 3 pts lower ($28.41)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 168.2 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – 319.6 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 28.7 K T. old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – 41.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 19.1 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

June 1st Quarterly Soybean Stocks – average guess 1.861 billion bu. vs. 1.219 billion year ago

June 1st Planted Soybean Acres – average guess 84.355 million acres vs. June WASDE estimate of 84.6 million vs. March estimate of 84.617 million vs. 89.196 million last year

Tomorrow will be a big day – 1st Notice Day for July Soybean deliveries (some are expected) – USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage (Stocks big, Acreage could go either way as I think soybean planters are still rolling) – Month End – Quarter End. We have seen some modest liquidation ahead of all this. The weather is conducive to plant development. Don’t forget about the G-20 Summit (who knows what will come out that?)

Producer cash selling is slight at best.

It’s a given that the old crop stocks are big. I don’t think anyone has a handle on soybean acres at this point in time.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/28

Aug Soybeans: $8.70 – $9.20

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.35

Aug Soybean Meal: $306.0 ($302.0) – $324.0

August Soybean Oil: $27.30 – $28.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.