Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.47 ½), Sept ¼ cent higher ($5.46 ¾) & Dec ½ cent higher ($5.56 ¾)

July KC Wheat closed 1 cent lower ($4.68), Sept ½ cent lower ($4.81 ½) & Dec ½ cent lower ($5.03 ¼)

July Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.51 1/2), Sept 2 cents higher ($5.61 ½) & Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.76 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 612.0 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

June 1st Quarterly Wheat Stocks – average guess 1.100 billion bu. vs. 1.099 billion year ago

June 1st Planted Wheat Acres – All Wheat average guess 45.654 million acres vs. June WASDE estimate of 45.8 million vs. March estimate of 45.754 million vs. 47.8 million year ago – Winter Wheat average guess 31.577 million acres vs. March estimate of 31.504 million vs. 32.535 million year ago – Spring Wheat average guess 12.595 million acres vs. March estimate of 12.83 million vs. 13.2 million year ago

Personally I don’t think tomorrow’s numbers from the USDA should have much direct impact on the wheat futures’ market. 1st Notice day deliveries are expected to be none. I think weather at this point in time has greater bearing on the market; harvest weather in the US and the ongoing heat & dryness in Europe and Russia (not expected to last so say the latest forecasts).

Cash markets are quiet right now but many merchandisers in the harvest ready areas feel we could see some movement over the weekend.

Long story short – I’m not in step with the idea of wheat futures going higher.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/28

Sept Chgo Wheat: $5.30 – $5.62

Sept KC Wheat: $4.65- $5.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.