Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 16 ¼ cents higher ($8.65), Sept 16 ¼ cents higher ($8.70 ¼) & Nov 16 ¼ cents higher ($8.83)

August Soybean Meal closed $1.8 higher ($294.8), Sept $1.8 higher ($296.8) & Dec $2.0 higher ($302.0)

August Soybean Oil closed 100 pts higher ($28.96), Sept 100 pts higher ($29.01) & Dec 101 pts higher ($29.38)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 101.7 K T. old crop 0-300 K T. expected – 318.3 K T. new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 92.2 K T. old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – 18.6 K T. new crop vs. 25-125 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 31.8 K T. old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected – 8.9 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

USDA announces 135.0 K T. of new crop soybean meal sold to the Philippines

Soybean oil carries the ball big time on Thursday. The story is all about China lowering its import quotas for selected veg oils. That further suggests China will be cutting back on their soybean imports due to their decimated hog herd. This news had most veg oil markets spiking higher. Dryness concerns in the central areas of the Midwest also lent fuel for the rally. The latest forecasts do call for moisture late this weekend, early next week for these dry areas but the trade won’t believe it until they see it. Extended forecasts suggest there is not much behind next week’s rain event as warm and dry is expected to rebuild into a good portion of the Midwest.

Other than the continued erratic behavior with the Savanna basis locations elsewhere appear to be pretty steady with their soybean basis bids. The Gulf continues to show a weak tone. Soybean spreads were steady upfront and then showed fractional improvements over time. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior are mostly steady. The Gulf appears to be a shade easier. Meal spreads ran steady upfront and then showed fractional losses moving forward.

$9.00 starts technical resistance for November soybeans. Add some weather fears and the unknown around the USDA report on Monday to the mix and it suggests to me we could easily test the suggested resistance over the near term. Bean oil had been sideways for the last month and a half; today’s higher price action is challenging that sideways mode. Soybean meal is holding onto Monday’s suggested upside reversal but it’s not going anywhere. The price action still has a positive look to it; I don’t think it would take much for Dec meal to rally $8-$10 from current levels.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/09

Nov Soybeans: $8.76 – $8.92

Dec Soybean Meal: $299.5 – $308.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.85 – $29.50 ($29.75)

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