Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opnion

January Soybeans closed 4 cents lower ($9.01), March 3 ¾ cents lower ($9.15 ¼) & July 3 ½ cents lower ($9.40 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $1.2 higher ($301.0), March $1.1 higher ($305.8) & July $1.1 higher ($312.1)

December Soybean Oil closed 51 pts lower ($30.69), March 53 pts lower ($31.16) & July 49 pts lower ($31.78)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.516 M T. old crop vs. 800 K – 1.400 M T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 196.4 K T. old crop vs. 100-450 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 39.2 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly soybean export sales came in above expectations while meal sales favored the low side of expectations. Recent export demand for US soybeans has shown some decent improvement but I have to think the trade remains on edge over the US/China trade talks. China has invited US trade negotiators for some face-to-face in Beijing (no date set that I know of). The other side of that is China is not happy over the recent US stance concerning what’s been happening in Hong Kong. I think it would be devastating to the US soybean market if China came out and said “we’re done trying to play this game”.  Soybean oil ran into some profit taking prompted by the lower Palm oil market. The profit taking in bean oil had recent shorts in the soybean meal market honoring the suspected support at the $300.0 level.

The interior soybean river locations continue to see some further easing. Processors, however, continue to stand in for soybean origination due to Board crush margins improving. The Jan Board crush has improved some 35 cents since late October. The Gulf basis for soybeans appears to be stabilizing after weakening earlier this week. Soybean spreads continue to be soft. Not much happens with the meal basis; domestically of for export. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally better but still nothing to write home about.

Here Jan beans sit at the $9.00 mark. Today’s trade showed no willingness to reject this sometimes psychological support level. This would suggest a probe of the next technical support level of $8.95. Failure there would suggest something closer to $8.85. In the “for what it is worth” department – it seems that when the soybean market has been higher going into the 8:30 reopening it fails to hold the rally. This is in keeping with the old adage that bear markets open higher. Tomorrow is Friday; the market is ripe for some short covering. Unfortunately media rhetoric regarding the US/China trade talks will continue to hold sway over the soybean market. If I had to guess tomorrow’s activity we’ll see something closer to $8.95 and close above $9.00

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/22

Jan Soybeans: $8.95 (?) – $9.10

Dec Soybean Meal: $298.0 (?) – $305.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.40 – $31.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.