Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 6 ½ cents lower ($5.09), March 6 ¾ cents lower ($5.12) & July 5 ½ cents lower ($5.17 ¾)

December KC Wheat closed 5 cents lower ($4.21), March 4 ½ cents lower ($4.28 ½) & July 4 cents lower ($4.42 ¾)

December Mpls Wheat closed 6 cents lower ($4.95 ¼), March 6 ¼ cents lower ($5.09 ¼) & July 5 ¾ cents lower ($5.30 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 437.7 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly export sales continue to be not much to write home about. Despite a fair spate of global wheat business US origination continues to play second fiddle to Argentina, Ukraine, the EU and the Black Sea. With that said the best that can be had for US wheat futures is a trading range affair. If you’re looking to be bullish about something involving US wheat futures look to the intra-market spreads for the Chgo and KC markets as well as the inter-market spreads with Chgo in the leadership role.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein run unchanged for SRW and steady to slightly easier for HRW. Intra-market spreads for both markets ran a bit easier today influenced by the flat price selling as well as a bit of option expiration related fears. Not much happens with export values for either variety.

Looks good but doesn’t follow through. Looks bad but doesn’t follow through. These are the characteristics of a trading range market. Fading short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities is the only way I know how to approach these kind of markets.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/22

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.03 – $5.15

Dec KC Wheat: $4.17 – $4.27

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.