July Soybeans closed 6 ¼ cents lower ($8.61 ¼), August 6 ¼ cents lower ($8.66 ¾) & Nov 5 ½ cents lower ($8.83 ½)
July Soybean Meal closed $2.5 lower ($331.4), August $1.6 lower ($330.7) & Dec $0.2 lower ($331.3)
July Soybean Oil closed unchanged ($29.01), August unchanged ($29.13) & Dec unchanged ($29.68)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 358.5 K T. old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – 642.3 K T. new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 146.3 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 75.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 30.5 K T. old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected – 2.4 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Average Trade Estimate for Quarterly Soybean Stocks – 1.225 billion bu.
Average Trade Estimate for Planted Soybean Acres – 89.691 million vs. March 2018 at 88.982
Soybeans see a two-sided trade on Thursday but finishes lower. There was a mid-morning bit of short covering but that gave way in the latter part of the day. A week ago Tuesday lows are still intact but new low closes were registered. There is nothing new here – trade tensions are scaring the hell out of anyone trying to be long as well as the expectations of big numbers out of the USDA tomorrow. Old timers will tell you the heat we are going to see in near term will have little if any impact on the soybean crop as it’s the month of August that is important to the success or failure of the soybean crop. Bean oil tried to be the positive influence with its strength midday but this market too gave way late in the day. Soybean meal, which has been trying to be a positive influence in recent days, also sold off late to register a new low close. Meal is still in its recent trading range but it wouldn’t take much to spark some new spec selling.
The interior soybean basis shows a steady to better bias but it does little for the steady to wider soybean spreads. The attitude is that it will be hard to show a friendly old crop quarterly stocks figure while planted acres may not come in as high as everyone expects. Coming into today there were 1586 contracts of soybeans registered for delivery. Given the shroud of gloom the tariff threats have created why not deliver every single bushel.
The direction of the trade for next few days is up to the USDA and the whims of Mother Nature. Given the recent performance the trade is pretty beared up. I don’t think it would take much to get a knee-jerk reaction to the upside but trying to trade in anticipation of that is a lesson in frustration. Additionally – we’ll still have to deal with the politics in the marketplace.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/29
Aug Soybeans: $8.47 (?) – $9.05
Nov Soybeans: $8.60 ($?) – $9.20
Aug Soybean Meal; $322.0 (?) – $341.0
Aug Soybean Oil: $28.00 (?) – $29.60
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.