July Corn closed 7 ½ cents lower ($3.45), Sept 7 ½ cents lower ($3.54 ¼) & Dec 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.66)
July Chgo Ethanol closed 0.002 cents a gallon higher ($1.417), August 0.005 cents lower ($1.430)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 849.9 K T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 636.8 K T. new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Average Trade Estimate for Quarterly Corn Stocks – 5.268 billion bu.
Average Trade Estimate for Planted Corn Acres – 88.562 million vs. March 2018 at 88.026
What started out as modestly lower day turned into a noticeably lower day. Tomorrow brings us month end, quarter end, first notice day for July corn, quarterly old crop corn stocks and an update to planted corn acres. Given the way the market sold off in the latter part of the session suggests no one wants to be long; partial to be short. A week ago Tuesday’s lows are still intact but new low closes were registered. Bearish factors continue to be trade tensions (China & NAFTA) and the idea of excellent growing conditions that will lead to new all-time high yields. We still see forecasts calling for some big time heat in the near term as well as mid-late next week. Moisture during these time frames is called to be scattered favoring the northern tier of the Corn Belt. Many areas are starting to report that their corn crop is in the beginning stages of pollination. After today’s performance I get the impression no one wants to be long. This in turn opens the door for a bullish report from the USDA as well as the possibility for a 4th of July turn around.
I’m getting mixed readings with the interior corn basis. The Gulf eases a bit. Corn spreads continue to show a bearish bias. No one appears to have a good handle on deliveries as estimates are ranging from 200-600. Coming into today there were 736 contracts registered for delivery. My personal bias has corn deliveries on the light side of expectations as we still have 10.0 M T. to ship if we are going to meet the sales that we have on the books.
The direction of the trade for next few days is up to the USDA and the whims of Mother Nature. Given the recent performance the trade is pretty beared up. I don’t think it would take much to get a knee-jerk reaction to the upside but trying to trade in anticipation of that is a lesson in frustration.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/29
Sept Corn: $3.48 (?) – $3.68 (?)
Dec Corn: $3.60 (?) – $3.80 (?)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.