Nov Soybeans closed 4 ½ cents lower ($8.61 ½), March 3 ¼ cents lower ($8.89) & July 3 ¼ cents lower ($9.13)
Oct Soybean Meal closed $3.7 lower ($307.5), Dec $3.9 lower ($311.2) & March $3.4 lower ($311.0)
Oct Soybean Oil closed 16 pts higher ($29.52), Dec 18 pts higher ($29.84) & March 17 pts higher ($30.33)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 900 K – 1.500 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop (2017-18) vs. -200+0 K T. expected – new crop (2018-19) vs. 200-500 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop (2017-18) vs. 0-10 K T. expected – new crop (2018-19) vs. 0-26 K T. expected
Soybean meal continues to be the weak link within the soy complex. It was weak enough today that the recent strength in bean oil could not offset. The end result had the soybean market doing some minor backing and filling of its recent attempt to grind higher. Losses weren’t great as the trade is still eyeballing the current forecasts for some inundating rain over areas of the western Corn Belt as well as some areas of the west/central Corn Belt. Harvest ready soybeans don’t do too well standing in water for any length of time. Given our export scenario, meaning without China, the US can afford to lose a few soybeans. The bottom line is that without the soybean meal market’s participation it will be a tough road to hoe for the soybean market. A sagging meal market will eventually drag the soybean market lower.
The interior cash soybean market has taken on a mixed look vs. yesterday’s postings. Some interior river locations are bumping up their bids. Processors, in an effort to protect their crush margins, are softening their bids. Overall the interior soybean basis continues to be ugly despite some minor improvement. The Gulf I’m told is standing in but its not about demand; it’s about the lack of barges. Soybean spreads ran soft all the way out to the new crop. Offers to cash soybean meal in the interior continue to look for buyers. The gulf market for meal is not much better. Needless to say meal spreads ran the route of soybean spreads; soft all the way out to the new crop.
The price action of both the meal and soybean markets look like they are struggling to maintain the recent attempt to grind higher. Sure, the soybean oil market looks good but how can 11-12 lbs. of bean oil overcome 44-46 lbs. of soybean meal. In other words as goes the soybean meal market so goes the soybean market. The best I can see for the meal and soybean markets over the near term is “stayin alive”. What about bean oil – it’s slowly starting to get a bit overbought.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/04
Nov Soybeans: $8.50 – $8.70
Dec Soybean Meal: $308.0 – $317.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $29.20 – $30.10
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.