July Soybeans closed ¼ cent higher ($8.67 ½), August unchanged ($8.73) & Nov 1 ½ cents higher ($8.89)
July Soybean Meal closed $0.2 higher ($333.9), August $0.5 lower ($332.3) & Dec $1.1 lower ($331.5)
July Soybean Oil closed 7 pts higher ($29.01), August 10 pts higher ($29.13) & Dec 9 pts higher ($29.68)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
The day-to-day trading pattern of the soybean market has been similar over the past few days; the flat price tries to firm early and then spends the balance of the day fading that early rally. The scenario behind the soybean trade has not changed; trade tensions with China with no resolve in sight (at least what I can see). The perception of good growing conditions also works to limit the rally potential as does the idea that the USDA could announce an additional 700 K acres (or more) planted to soybeans. The strength in the product markets, relative to crush margins, is trying to help to keep the soybean market alive. I say trying as the recent price action still leaves a lot to be desired.
Interior cash soybean markets are mostly steady. Processors show the best bid structure and rightly they should given the great looking crush margins. The Gulf shows a minor firming tone but I think that is more due to a lack of movement vs. demand. Soybean spreads ran steady to lower. The cash meal market remains quiet; both for domestic use as well as for export. Meal spreads have been firming for the past number of days and I think that is in response to the slow soybean movement which in turn slows the rate of crush.
The long term trend in soybeans reads lower as does the short term trend. The long term trend for soybean meal reads lower while the short term trend is sideways/consolidation. The long term trend in soybean oil reads lower as does the short term trend. The price formation in soybean oil jumps out at me as it looks like a textbook book downflag; last Tuesday’s price action is the flagpole and the subsequent action is the downflag – its almost picture perfect. Question for you all – what happens if the USDA data for soybeans is deemed bullish yet we still have the trade tensions hanging over the market? How about a very sharp rally that fades into July 6th if trade tariffs are still hanging over the market?
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/28
Aug Soybeans: $8.64 (?) – $8.83
Nov Soybeans: $8.81 ($?) – $9.00
Aug Soybean Meal; $328.0 – $338.0
Aug Soybean Oil: $28.60 (?) – $29.50
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