July Corn closed unchanged ($3.52 ½), Sept ½ cent higher ($3.61 ¾) & Dec unchanged ($3.73 ¼)
July Chgo Ethanol closed 0.021 cents a gallon higher ($1.415), August 0.018 cents higher ($1.435)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.072 million bpd vs. 1.064 bpd last week – Stocks – 21.7 million bbls vs. 21.6 million last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
The majority of the corn trade on Wednesday was positioning by the different sector participants ahead of the USDA numbers on Friday. Modest strength was seen early in the day session followed modest selling. The end result was just fractional to unchanged changes on the day. Trade tensions (tariffs and such between China and NAFTA participants) and weather considerations/growing conditions continue to be the primary topics of discussion. It’s going to get hot this weekend, cool off some early next week and then get hot again by mid-late next week. What moisture that is around will favor the northern, northwestern tier of the Corn Belt.
The interior corn basis is relatively quiet as it seems no one is in a hurry to sell and end-users are in no hurry to buy. Not much change is being noted at the Gulf. First notice day is Friday for July corn. Personally I don’t have a good handle on deliveries. From time to time corn spreads have tried to show signs of improvement but then fall they fall back. Like the flat price spreads too have gone into a waiting game on the USDA data on Friday.
The price action advertises consolidation. What is it consolidating for – it’s waiting to see what the USDA has to say on Friday. Slightly bullish looking figures from the USDA could see a sharper than expected reaction given the amount of spec selling we have seen this month. The selling we have seen this month has pretty much taken out any weather risk premium. Are the sellers asking me to believe the crop has been made? The 4th of July has a bit of a history for turning trends – I have to be respectful of that especially with the threat of some big heat returning to the Midwest.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/28
Sept Corn: $3.56 – $3.67
Dec Corn: $3.68 – $3.79
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