Wheat Commentary


Wheat _ Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 23 ¼ cents higher ($5.62 ½), July 20 cents higher ($5.55 ¾) & Sept 17 ½ cents higher ($5.55 ¾)

May KC Wheat closed 20 ½ cents higher ($4.89 ½), July 20 ¾ cents higher ($4.93 ¼) & Sept 19 ¾ cents higher ($4.99 ½)

May Mpls Wheat closed 7 ¾ cents higher ($5.28 ¼), July 7 cents higher ($5.36 ¾) & Sept 6 ¼ cents higher ($5.44 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 349.3 K T. vs. 350-600 K expected

In these trying times when people worldwide are getting sick the worst thing that can happen to them is to threaten their supply of food. That I feel is the driving force behind the wheat market rally. I’m not sure much more needs to be said. We can talk about the unknown around the developing new crop whether it be in the US or with our global competitors but as of this writing it takes a back seat to the current fear of no bread.

I’m not seeing any changes in the advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat. Milling quality wheat, however, is being bid for hot and heavy. Bull spreads were working noticeably in Chgo as this is where we have the heaviest concentration of spec participation. Bull spreading in the KC and Mpls markets were working but not to the extent seen in Chgo.

The next level of noticeable resistance for July Chgo wheat comes in at the high $5.60’s followed by something closer to $5.75. The best looking near term support comes in near the mid-low $5.40’s. As long as the world thinks their food supply is going to be threatened the bias will remain for higher prices. Just be aware of when the market gets into a short-term overbought scenario as corrections could be sharp but short lived.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/24

July Chgo Wheat – $5.40 – $5.68 ($5.74)

July KC Wheat – $4.80 – $5.02 ($5.10)

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