Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 3 cents lower ($5.45 ¼), May 3 cents lower ($5.48 ¾) & July 2 ¾ cents lower ($5.50 ¾)

March KC Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.60 ½), May 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.68 ¾) & July 1 ½ cents lower ($4.76)

March Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.41 ¼), May 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.49 ¼) & July 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.57)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 868.6 K T. old crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly wheat export sales were the best of the season to date, yet the markets’ performance left a lot to be desired. The “hard” varieties were most of the sales; HRW 42%, HRS 27%, White 22%, SRW 5% and Durum 2%. The Mpls market was the only one to keep its head above water for the day while KC saw losses of less than 2 cents while Chgo saw 3 cent losses. It seemed to me that most of the trade was inter-market spreading; buying the “hard” and selling the “soft”.

The advertised interior basis for standard protein wheat runs unchanged. This holds true for the Gulf as well. Nearby Chgo spreads can be called unchanged to fractionally mixed. The first 4 months of Chgo did firm vs. its deferred contracts. KC spreads ran similar to Chgo.

The short term looks at Chgo wheat charts suggests downflagging from Tuesday’s highs. The KC wheat charts are more sideways against recent highs. One item in particular jumps out at me; the hard varieties are trying to suggest we may have established some long-term lows vs. the Chgo market. This maybe tough to trade against the March Chgo contract given its quality issues.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 20th

March Chgo Wheat: $5.40 – $5.52

March KC Wheat: $4.56 ($4.52) – $4.66

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.