Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 2 ½ cents higher ($5.52 ¾), May 3 cents higher ($5.56 ¼) & July 2 ¼ cents higher ($5.58 ½)

March KC Wheat closed 5 cents higher ($4.80), May 4 ¾ cents higher ($4.87 ¾) & July 5 cents higher ($4.95 ¾)

March Mpls Wheat closed 1 cent higher ($5.47 ¾), May ¾ cent higher ($5.56 ¾) & July ¾ cent higher ($5.64 ¼)

Over Night Egypt buys 300 K T. of wheat – 120 K T. Russian, 120 K T. Romanian and 60 K T. Ukraine – Average price paid $245.71 (CIF) vs. $238.19 (CIF) on Dec 10th

Weekly Wheat Export Sales (Delayed until Friday) – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

US wheat prices sold off early in the night session as it appeared the strife in the Mid-East was escalating. Prices firmed when ideas developed that conditions could soon de-escalate. Prices firmed even further when it became known Egypt was paying nearly $8.00 per ton higher vs. purchases they made in mid-December. KC led the rally partly due to HRW prices are the closest to being price competitive in the world markets (note I said close to being price competitive). Adding to the KC market’s leadership role on Wednesday was it’s the first day of index fund rebalancing that features buying KC while selling smaller amounts of Chgo. Not much is expected from the USDA’s supply-demand update on Friday; carryout is expected to decline by 5 million bu. I have to think more focus will be on the US winter wheat acres as well as the World projected carryout.

Advertised cash prices for standard protein wheat don’t change. This holds true for interior basis levels as well as for export basis levels. Chgo ran mixed on the day; March loses fractionally to the May while May gains on its deferred. KC spreads were mostly flat on the day with only mixed fractional changes.

Chgo wheat prices remain firmly entrenched in a solid looking up channel that started back in September.  Prices are currently just above the midpoint of the channel. Longer term I do question how much is left on the upside but please don’t construe that I’m looking for points to sell – not yet. Prices for KC wheat are rebounding after a brief attempt at some backing and filling. Be aware that if and when nearby KC prices get above $5.00 a hard look will be done as to whether or not the rally can sustain itself. Until that time Eustis, until that time.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 9th   

March Chgo Wheat: $5.48 – $5.60

March KC Wheat: $4.74 – $4.86

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