Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 6 ¾ cents lower ($5.52), May 5 ¼ cents lower ($5.51 ½) & July 4 ½ cents lower ($5.52 ½)

March KC Wheat closed unchanged ($4.72 ½), May unchanged ($4.78 ½) & July unchanged ($4.85 ¼)

March Mpls Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($5.33 ¾), May 2 cents lower ($5.43 ½) & July 2 ½ cents lower ($5.51 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 523.7 K T. vs. 300-600 K T. expected

Results of Reuters Poll for February 11th USDA Supply Demand – US wheat carryout 954 million bu. vs. 965 in January – World wheat carryout 287.44 M T. vs. 288.08 in January

It was a mixed day for wheat trading not only in this country but overseas as well. Chgo wheat is a noticeable loser on the day, KC runs unchanged and Mpls modestly easier. European wheat prices appeared higher while Russian prices looked like they were steady to easier. The strength in the European prices were led by the French as it is thought China may be looking for additional French origin on top of what it was rumored they bought last week. Weekly wheat export inspections were deemed no big deal and I think that weighed on the Chgo market. It’s the Chgo market that falls victim to the headlines even though it’s a SRW market and the cash market for SRW remains quite strong due quality issues around last year’s crop.

Advertised interior basis levels for SRW continue to be strong looking. The interior basis for HRW appears to be trying to bump higher. Offsetting some of this is the export basis for both varieties appear to be maintaining some recent weakness. For what it is worth no US origin wheat is anywhere being close to being competitive with the global trade. Chgo spreads continue to retreat from the strength we saw from Tuesday of last week. KC spreads continue to flatline.

Even though not much is expected from tomorrow’s wheat Supply-Demand update Chgo wheat prices appear to be inching to the edge of a sell signal. $5.45 (March) still looks like trendline support while closes below $5.40 should rattle the cages of the spec longs. To get the longer term uptrend to resume I need to see closes above the $5.65 level. The March KC market appears to be a trading range affair between $4.60 and $4.80.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/11

March Chgo Wheat – $5.45 (?) – $5.65

March KC Wheat – $4.62 – $4.82

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