Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 8 ½ cents lower ($5.41 ¾), July 9 cents lower ($5.38 ¾) & Dec 8 ¾ cents lower ($5.51)

May KC Wheat closed 11 cents lower ($4.64), July 11 ¼ cents lower ($4.71 ¼) & Dec 10 ¾ cents lower ($4.92 ¾)

May Mpls Wheat closed 5 ½ cents lower ($5.19), July 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.30) & Dec 4 ½ cents lower ($5.49 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 72.9 K T. old crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected – 185.9 K T. new crop vs. 150-450 K T. expected

The liquidation continues. Old crop weekly export sales were nothing short of feeble. New crop sales were not much better. In addition to US wheat markets easing world export markets appear to be doing the same as well. I’m told Egypt cancelled there tender yesterday as they wanted a “coronavirus clause” written into the contracts. Supposedly none of their suppliers would go along with that. If something like that would become the norm in the world wheat trade trading would come to a screeching halt (just my opinion).

Interior wheat basis levels for standard protein wheat run unchanged with one exception (unless it was a misprint) – On Monday Decatur, IN was option price for SRW, yesterday they wee 20 under and now today they are only 5 cents under. If I did have to label a trend for the interior wheat basis it is easier. The export basis for both SRW and HRW are unchanged at midday but sustaining their recent easing. Only fractional changes were seen in the spreads.

Wheat price charts continue to advertise liquidation.  For what it is worth July Chgo’ s halfway back move of the March rally comes into view around the mid-low $5.30’s. July KC flirted with its halfway back today. As much as I think we have more liquidation coming I would be hesitant to sell any further break beyond what we saw today. I’m not bullish but the wheat market is famous for its frustration when one chases a short term extreme.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/03

July Chgo Wheat – $5.32 – $5.50

July KC Wheat – $4.65 – $4.82

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.