Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 4 cents lower ($8.58 ¾), July 3 ¼ cents lower ($8.64) & Nov ½ cent lower ($8.63)

May Soybean Meal closed $5.8 lower ($309.1), July $4.4 lower ($307.8) & Dec $1.8 lower ($305.8)

May Soybean Oil closed 19 pts higher ($26.24), July 18 pts higher ($26.59) & Dec 15 pts higher ($27.42)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 957.4 K T. old crop vs. 375-900 K T. expected – 114.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 125.2 K T. old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – -15.9 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 67.0 K T. old crop vs. 8-40 K T. expected – 2.3 K T. new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

A sharply higher US Dollar and a lower Brazilian real means more Brazilian soybean selling. A higher US crush rate creates more meal stocks and soybean oil stocks. Exports of US soybeans were good but soybean meal exports were not. Soybean oil exports were good but soybean oil very rarely makes a soybean market. Soybean oil tried to rally with the spike higher in crude oil but it failed to sustain the rally as bio-diesel usage is down and I can’t tell you the last time I saw US soybean oil exports make a market.

The interior soybean basis runs unchanged on day whether its for processing or for export. The midday posting at the Gulf eases a bit from recent strength. It looked like soybean spreads were easing from front end spec liquidation. The same holds true for the cash meal market and it futures’ market price action.

The soy complex charts tell me just one thing – liquidation. Tomorrow is Friday and one might think given the recent sell-off we might see some short covering. My answer to that is “why”. The best I’ll expect is an attempt at stabilization.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/03

July Soybeans – $8.55 – $8.75

July Soy Meal – $305.0 – $312.0

July Soy Oil – $26.00 – $26.80

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.