Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 6 ½ cents higher ($5.55 ¾), July 6 cents higher ($5.51) & Dec 5 ¾ cents lower ($5.60)

May KC Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.75 ¾), July 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.81 ¾) & Dec 3 ¼ cents higher ($5.02 ¾)

May Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($5.26 ¾), July 2 ½ cents higher ($5.38) & Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.57)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 320.3 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

US wheat futures firm with the ongoing world export trade. Unfortunately the US is not getting much of this trade as evidenced by recent export sales and inspections reports and that’s why the early rally today was unable to sustain its gains. Chgo continues to lead the way whether the market is up or down as this contract gets all of the spec activity. This afternoon starts the first week crop progress of the season for wheat ratings. The trade is expecting to see 56% GE. The USDA reports the US winter wheat crop is 62% GE.

Both the interior wheat basis and export basis for standard protein run unchanged. Wheat spreads were firmer in Chgo as old crop quality issue is still in play. KC spreads were only fractionally firmer.

Flat price wheat challenges the resistance established in the early half of last week and gets turned away especially in KC as it finished 9 cents off of the day’s high. From a pure technical look I think these resistance levels made last week will continue to be honored as the current configuration looks like an upflag. Last Thursday I cautioned against selling the break – now it looks like caution should be used in chasing this attempt to rally.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/07

July Chgo Wheat – $5.42 – $5.59

July KC Wheat – $4.70 – $4.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.