Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($5.21), July 5 ¾ cent lower ($5.24 ¾) & Dec 4 ½ cents lower ($5.35 ¾)

May KC Wheat closed 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.70 ½), July 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.79 ½) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.96 ½)

May Mpls Wheat closed 5 cents lower ($4.04), July 4 ½ cents lower ($5.08 ¾) & Dec 3 ¼ cents lower ($5.35)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 501.3 K T. vs. 400-650 K T. expected

Russia announces they are done taking any new orders for old crop wheat but will honor what’s already on the books. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia books 660 K T. of new crop wheat. In recent days I’ve seen new crop prices notably below old crop. Forecasts for the near term are suggesting beneficial moisture for the dry wheat areas of Europe and the Black Sea. US wheat export business remains nothing special. It has to be mentioned that US spring wheat futures (MPLS) are in new contract low ground.

Interior cash wheat prices (basis) for standard protein continue to run unchanged. The export basis for SRW runs unchanged as well while the HRW export basis bumps up a bit. The upfront spread in Chgo ran unchanged despite getting blasted late last Friday. The softness in this spread suggests someone may deliver a “hard” variety against this contract on Thursday. Overall Chgo spreads had a bearish bias on Monday. The nearby KC spread was soft while going forward KC spreads ran mostly mixed.

The recent price action for July Chgo suggests the possibility of another 10-15 cents lower, something closer to $5.10. July KC charts suggest $4.70 may offer some support. It cannot be ignored that Mpls contracts are in new contract lows.

The trade is estimating that winter wheat ratings will run unchanged vs. last week, 57% GE. The range of ideas ran from 53% GE to 60% GE. The USDA reports the US winter wheat is now rated 54% GE vs. 64% GE year ago. The trade is thinking that spring wheat planting is now 18% of the intended acreage. Ideas ran from 14% planted to 23% planted. The USDA reports 14% of the intended spring wheat crop has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 29%.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/28

July Chgo Wheat – $5.15 – $5.31

July KC Wheat – $4.71 – $4.87

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.