Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.24 ¾), July 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.17 ¼) & Dec 3 ½ cents lower ($5.30 ¼)

May KC Wheat closed 8 cents lower ($4.96), July 5 cents lower ($4.75) & Dec 4 ½ cents lower ($4.94)

May Mpls Wheat closed 3 cents higher ($5.03), July 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.18 ¾) & Dec 3 cents higher ($5.41 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 340.3 K T. vs. 400-650 K T. expected

The USDA reports the US winter wheat crop is now rated 53% GE (-2%) – trade expectations were to see 54% GE

The USDA reports that 42% of the intended US spring wheat acreage has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 63% – trade expectations were to see 49% planted

During the Sunday night session wheat futures try to trade with the strength in the corn and soybean market. One the day session started those gains soon gave way. There is some speculation that some of the SRW crop in the Ohio Valley may have been impacted by the frost/freeze over the weekend but as the day went on any fears were dismissed. Better weather forecasts for crop development soon became the rationale for the easing prices. That not only held true for the US but for our overseas competition as well. Not much is expected from the USDA as far as old crop data is expected. Tomorrow will be the first look at new crop production here in the US and for the World. We know the US and the EU has lower winter wheat acreage. Russia has said its winter wheat yield has been impacted but as to how much they don’t say. With all of this said the new crop data could easily suggest the market’s direction for the next couple of months.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat run unchanged with recent postings. This holds true for the export basis as well. The tone of the interior market (basis) is steady to firm as producer selling remans minimal. The export basis for HRW definitely shows a softer tone while the export basis for SRW reads steady to better. Spreads in both Chgo and KC showed a bearish bias reflective of the flat price selling.

In the past few days Chgo wheat has been upflagging into minor resistance levels. Today’s activity registered an interim reversal to the downside; an outside day involving new highs and a lower close. KC wheat has been in a tight range for nearly two weeks ($4.70 to $4.90). I have to think the USDA data tomorrow should give us a directional clue for the next number of weeks.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/12

July Chgo Wheat – $5.10 – $5.30

July KC Wheat – $4.67 – $4.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.