Dec Chgo Wheat closed 12 ¾ cents lower ($6.20), March 12 ¼ cents lower ($6.20 ¼), & July 9 ¾ cents lower ($6.08 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closed 17 ¾ cents lower ($5.52), March 17 cents lower ($5.59 ½) & July 16 cents lower ($5.69)
Dec Mpls Wheat closed 12 ½ cents lower ($5.74 ½), March 8 ½ cents lower ($5.82 ¾) & July 7 ½ cents lower ($5.92 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 363.8 K T. vs. 241.2 K T. last week
Weekly US Winter Wheat Crop Condition & Progress – 41% GE vs. 52% expected vs. 56% year ago – Planted – 85% vs. 86% expected vs. 80% 5-year average – Emerged – 62% vs. 60% 5-year average
Flat price wheat gets slammed from the idea of better weather for the winter wheat crops in the Black Sea area as well as in the US Southern Plains. Granted we are still seeing a fair amount of world wheat business (Syria and Pakistan) a good portion of the recent rally has been about the germination of the recently planted winter wheat. US wheat business in my opinion remains no big deal.
The interior cash wheat basis for standard protein wheat continues to be quiet. The HRW basis at the Gulf remains quiet as well. The SRW basis at the gulf sees a slight bump higher. Spreads for all of the varieties had a softening bias given the flat price selling.
Today’s price action in the Dec KC market is advertising a top with its close below the previous 7 days. The Chgo picture is not as clear cut as to whether or not we have a top. Yes, the price action looks quite iffy but we’ll have to see how the trade reacts to the much lower than expected winter wheat crop condition. If we are indeed looking at a top the best we see tomorrow is an inside day of today.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/27
Dec Chgo Wheat: $6.13 – $6.31
Dec KC Wheat: $5.45 – $5.65
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