Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 10 ½ cents lower ($5.98), March 10 ¼ cents lower ($6.06), & July 9 cents lower ($6.04 ¾)

Dec KC Wheat closed 7 ¼ cents lower ($5.54 ¼), March 7 cents lower ($5.62 ½) & July 6 ¾ cents lower ($5.72 ½)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 6 ½ cents lower ($5.55), March 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.72 ½) & July 2 ¾ cents lower ($5.88)

Nearby wheat futures give back nearly, if not all, of what they gained on Tuesday. Call it the higher US Dollar if you will. My rationale is the wheat market is hard pressed to sustain a rally if you are relying on the data the USDA gave us yesterday. I’m still see a decent amount of global wheat business happening but I’m not seeing much of it come this way. Russia talks about instituting export limits come February but that wasn’t given much attention today.

Cash wheat markets remains quiet for both interior and export locations. Both Chgo and KC spreads are seeing old crop easing vs the new crop. Makes sense for now, not much old crop business vs. the unknown with the new crop.

Today’s inability to sustain Tuesday rally really highlights the idea we don’t have a bull market here. The “however” is I won’t sell the break just like I won’t buy the rally. As I said yesterday I think its time to go back fading the short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities. Dec Chgo wheat at $5.85-$5.80 might be deserving of a fade especially if it happens in short order.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/12

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.90 – $6.09

Dec KC Wheat: $5.45 – $5.64

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.