March Chgo Wheat closed 3 ½ cents higher ($6.48 ¼), May 5 cents higher ($6.50 ¾) & July 3 cents higher ($6.33)
March KC Wheat closed 6 ½ cents higher ($6.25 ½), May 6 ¾ cents higher ($6.29 ¼) & July 7 ¼ cents higher ($6.29)
March Mpls Wheat closed 4 cents higher ($6.25), May 4 ¾ cents higher ($6.34 ¾) & July 4 ¾ cents higher ($6.40 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Wheat prices got pretty ugly in the early going on Thursday but managed to scratch and claw their way back to finish with modest gains on the day. The early selling was follow through selling from yesterday and the bounce back came from wheat following the firming price action in corn and soybeans. As I mentioned yesterday I thought it was very telling that Egypt was offered just over 1.0 M T. at their Tuesday night tender suggesting the World has plenty of wheat for sale.
Interior cash wheat prices remain quiet. HRW at the gulf is easing slightly while not much change is being seen with the SRW export basis. Chgo wheat spreads saw some mixed price action. March loses to May while May gains on the new crop. I have to wonder if some of this upfront bear spreading are smaller index funds rolling. Spreads in KC saw fractional losses all the way out.
Despite the ugly action early prices held at support levels that were established back in December. For Chgo prices to resume an uptrend I need to see closes above Monday’s high, $6.71. For those trying to be optimistic they will talk about the interim double against the $6.24-The March KC contract is seeing similar price action; an interim double bottom against the $6.04-$6.05 price level. To get this market to resume an uptrend I need to see a close above the Monday high, $6.44. So what will it take to get prices to resume an uptrend – another leg higher in the corn and soybean market and/or some better US export business.
Daily Support & Resistance – 02/04
March Chgo Wheat : $6.37 – $6.60
March KC Wheat: $6.15 – $6.36
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