Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($6.65 ¾), May ½ cent higher ($6.70 ¼) & July ¼ cent lower ($6.56 ¾)

March KC Wheat closed 3 ½ cents lower ($6.41), May 3 ¾ cents lower ($6.47 ¼) & July 3 ½ cents lower ($6.51)

March Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($6.36), May 1 ¾ cents lower ($6.48) & July 1 cent lower ($6.56 ¼)

Flat price wheat struggled to get anything going on the upside today. At one point Chgo prices were down nearly 9 cents and KC down nearly 11 cents. I think inter-market spreading against long corn and soybeans were most responsible for the slack performance. Some will try and tout the selected winter wheat ratings out last night that showed minimal damage from last week’s deep freeze in the central and southern Plains. Who in their right mind thinks the freeze damage would show this quickly as well as the crop being under a snow cover?  We won’t know the effects of last week’s deep freeze for weeks down the road.

Cash markets, both interior and for export, continue to see few if any changes. For the next few days we’ll see some fun and games in the March/May Chgo spread ahead of 1st Notice day. I think the nearby KC spread will stay fairly constant as its much more difficult to play the fun and games here. Longer term if you think there has been significant freeze damage to he new crop the May/July spread should continue to improve/tighten.

Despite today’s lackluster closes wheat charts still suggest the potential to move higher. The stair stepping higher performance is not bearish unless we see closes below the recent 2-day low.

May Chgo Wheat : $6.60 – $6.75 (?)

May KC Wheat: $6.40 – $6.59

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.