March Chgo Wheat closed 7 ½ cents lower ($6.46 ½), May 6 ½ cents lower ($6.46 ½) & July 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.40 ½)
March KC Wheat closed 4 cents lower ($6.13 ¼), May 4 ½ cents lower ($6.21 ¾) & July 4 ¼ cents lower ($6.27 ½)
March Mpls Wheat closed 1 ½ cents lower ($6.36), May 3 ½ cents lower ($6.41 ¾) & July 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.48 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 482.1 K T. vs. 250-500 K T. expected
Once again wheat is follower at least on the upside; it may be a leader on the downside. Wheat rallies with the rest of the crowd Sunday night and is the first to break down once the day session got under way. Algeria and Pakistan announce tenders. Weekly export inspections were at the high end of expectations. I saw two state ratings this afternoon; Oklahoma winter wheat is rated 53% GE vs. 46% week ago and Kansas 36% GE vs. 37% week ago. Once the flat price started its slide the intra-day rally in the US dollar kept this market from any appreciable rebound into the plus column for the day. Forecasts for next week suggest another shot of moisture for the Kansas Oklahoma area similar to what we saw last week.
The interior cash basis for standard protein for both SRW and HRW run unchanged. The Gulf rail basis for HRW runs unchanged. The gulf basis for SRW sees a lower bid while offers run unchanged. Chgo spreads are widening especially old crop vs. the new crop. KC spreads run fractionally mixed.
May Chgo breaks down out of its recent mini trading range. $6.36 is still considered support on a closing basis. May KC continues to trade in a sideways to easier mode. I can’t imagine a close below $6.17 would be too well received. The trade is expecting to see a slight hike in the projected carryout from the USDA tomorrow; up 3 M bu. Longer term the broad double tops in both of these wheat markets continues to cast an ominous look.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/09
May Chgo Wheat : $6.33 – $6.60
May KC Wheat: $6.08 – $6.35
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.