Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 11 ¼ cents lower ($6.76 ¼), Sept 11 ¾ cents lower ($6.80 ¾) & Dec 11 ½ cents lower ($6.88 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower ($6.24 ¼), Sept 9 ½ cents lower ($6.32 ¼) & Dec 9 ½ cents lower ($6.44)

July Mpls Wheat closed 5 ½ cents lower ($7.77 ½), Sept 5 ½ cents lower ($7.82 ¾) & Dec 7 ¼ cents lower ($7.83)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. -25 +100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected

So why did the Mpls market have a 40 cent break from its day’s high; because this market has no liquidity especially given the upside run it has seen this week. Big heat remains in the forecasts for the northern Plains. The heat is expected to ease some by mid next week but moisture remains questionable. Since the Mpls market has been in an upside leadership role this week the KC and Chgo markets had to follow suit. Next week the USDA will report on crop size for the US winter wheat. The Kansas crop is expected to be near exceptional. Will it be enough to offset the probable losses in the spring crop.

July Chgo wheat nearly filled its Friday to Tuesday opening gap on the inter-day charts; $6.68. This level should be viewed as decent support unless we’re going to see an entire retracement of the up move that started on May 26th. The July KC market sees similar type of price action with similar technical considerations.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/04

July Chgo Wheat: $6.68 – $6.92

July KC Wheat: $6.16 – $6.38

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