Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.82 ¼), Sept 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.89) & Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($6.97 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($6.35 ¾), Sept 2 ¾ cents higher ($6.43 ¼) & Dec 2 ¾ cents higher ($6.52 ½)

July Mpls Wheat closed 7 cents lower ($7.64 ¼), Sept 6 ¼ cents lower ($7.69 ¾) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($7.71 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop (2021/22) vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop (2022/23) vs. none expected

Scattered rains across the Dakotas keeps the Mpls market under pressure but finishes well off of the day’s lows. What rains that did occur were welcome but with temps staying high and the excessive wind the benefits remain minimal. Both the Chgo and KC markets slid lower on Mpls’ initial break but managed to come back as the day went on. The KC market gave us the best performance as it remains tied to the corn market as an alternative feed. It’s hard to ignore the July KC trading 60 cents or so below July corn and now the Sept KC is approaching the even money mark vs. Sept corn.

The interior cash wheat markets have a mixed look to them. The SRW basis does nothing and that holds true for its export market. The HRW basis reads mixed; Kansas is steady and Oklahoma is mixed dictated by where harvest is happening vs. where it has not yet started. The export basis for HRW remains quiet. Nearby spreads in Chgo where steady but with a slight bearish bias vs. the Dec. Index fund rolling has another 2 days to go. KC spreads showed a fractional bullish bias.

Wheat charts continue to suggest they are in a holding pattern. My guess is they are holding to see what the USDA has to say tomorrow. We know the southern Plains HRW crop is pretty good. We know the northern Plains and PNW winter crops are not the best. The SRW looks to be a bit better than okay. Will the USDA do some speculating on the spring crop with changes to total harvested acres, national yield and maybe include some production adjustments. This report is designed to be a winter wheat production update not a spring wheat production update. That won’t come until July. As long as Sept Chgo can honor the suspected support, $6.75 to $6.80, this market has a chance of resuming its uptrend. The same holds true for the Sept KC contract as long as it holds the $6.25 level

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/10

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.80 – $7.10

Sept KC Wheat: $6.30 – $6.65

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