Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 7 ¼ cents lower ($7.17 ¼), Dec 6 cents lower ($7.28 ¾) & March 4 ¾ cents lower ($7.38)

Sept KC Wheat closed 13 ¼ cents lower ($6.94 ¼), Dec 13 ¼ cents lower ($7.05. ½) & March 12 cents lower ($7.14 ½)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 16 ¾ cents lower ($9.03), Dec 15 ¼ cents lower ($8.91 ¾) & March 14 ½ cents lower ($8.78 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Profit taking hits the Mpls and KC wheat markets relatively hard on Wednesday, not as hard in Chgo. So what prompted the sell-off? One could be the lack of US business but then again US wheat has not been competitive for quite some time. I hope the trade wasn’t looking at the rain moving through the Dakotas today as that rain is too little too late. My rationale for today’s break in addition to the lack of business is that most of Europe and the Black Sea countries are in full swing harvest. There is an adage in this country you don’t get long wheat going into harvest. I guess that holds true for overseas’ harvest as well.

As I’ve mentioned in the past couple days the technical read in the Chgo and KC markets suggest consolidation and/or backing and filling as we honor the resistance levels that were established in last half April, first half May. I don’t think we are going to fully erase the recent rally but we are in line for some jerking around. It will be interesting to see how much follow selling is attracted by today’s suggested reversals.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/05

Sept Chgo Wheat: $7.08 – $7.25

Sept KC Wheat: $6.85 – $7.06

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