Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed ½ cent lower ($6.74 ½), Dec 1 ½ cents lower ($6.87) & March 2 ¼ cents lower ($6.97)

Sept KC Wheat closed 2 cents higher ($6.78 ¼), Dec 3 ¾ cents higher ($6.86 ¼) & March 3 ¼ cents higher ($6.95)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($8.81 ¼), Dec 2 ¾ cents lower ($8.76) & March 2 ¼ cents lower ($8.66 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 547.9 K T. vs. 200-500 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat ProgressPlanted – 12% vs. 12% expected vs. 9% year ago vs. 8% 5-year ave

After last week’s FSA wheat acreage report rocked US wheat futures and the USDA suggesting world wheat stocks are up 4.16 M T. attempts at stabilization was the name of the game today. Weekly export inspections were solid with HRW leading the way. Realize that a good portion of wheat exports come out of the Texas gulf not the Louisiana gulf. Tomorrow Statistics Canada will update Canadian wheat production. Trade guesses are looking for another 1.0 M T. drop to 21.9 M T. The USDA on Friday was at 23.0 M T. In addition to today’s attempt at price stabilization KC is once again trying to eclipse Chgo prices. We last saw this in the spring but it followed with a 60 cent drop. Given the short hard crop and that being were most of the demand is just maybe this inter-market spread rally has a chance to sustain itself.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/14

Dec Chgo Wheat: $6.80 – $6.97

Dec KC Wheat: $6.76 – $6.98

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.