Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 8 cents lower ($7.41 ¼), March 7 ¾ cents lower ($7.53 ½) & May 7 ½ cents lower ($7.57)

December KC Wheat closed 12 cents lower ($7.47 ¾), March 12 ¼ cents lower ($7.54) & May 12 cents lower ($7.55 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 4 ½ cents lower ($9.85 ¼), March 7 ½ cents lower ($9.67 ¾) & May 7 ¼ cents lower ($9.46 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 362.4 K T. old crop vs. 250-650 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

Dec Mpls wheat stumbles as it nears the $10.00 mark. Dec KC wheat leads the sell-off as weekly export sales continue to disappoint. KC wheat has been developing a premium over
Chgo in anticipation of better export business but it has yet to materialize. I’m still seeing a decent amount of World business happening but so far its not involving the US. Earlier in the week news talked about Russia’s wheat crop eventually being 4-5 M T. greater vs. what the USDA has been saying. In addition Ukraine raised its export quota. Spring wheat should stay strong just due to its short supply while Chgo and KC will have to deal with a lack of export business.

Flat price wheat registers minor reversals for its recent rally; new highs for the respective rallies while closing lower. It looks like that until better export business comes along Chgo wheat will remain in a trading range type atmosphere. I can’t help but notice that Dec KC has bumped up against the $7.60 level 3 times since August. $7.20 remains as good support.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/22

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.32 – $7.50

Dec KC Wheat: $7.38 – $7.56

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.